Europejski Urząd Nadzoru Ubezpieczeń i Pracowniczych Programów Emerytalnych (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority - EIOPA), Raport stabilności finansowej EIOPA

EIOPA-BoS-24/238

27 June 2024

EIOPA FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT

Geopolitical tensions may be exacerbating inflation and market risks, despite initial market reactions being limited. Concurrently, upcoming elections in major economies add further uncertainty to the global economic outlook. Economic activity slightly improved in the euro area in the first quarter of 2024 however is expected to remain subdued due to tight financing conditions and cautious consumer spending. However, lower inflation could bolster real incomes and potentially boost consumer and investment confidence in less restrictive economic conditions. Average GDP forecasts globally show a slight improvement.

In financial markets, swap rates remained high amid volatility, with interest rates peaking in Q3 2023 and expectations of rate cuts emerging thereafter, though the extent and timing of these cuts remain uncertain.Implied real interest rates stayed positive in the medium term, despite nominal interest rates and...